Written by Michael Thervil
While everyone is watching the war between Israel and Hamas in the Middle East, there is another war that has been brewing for quite some time, and that war is in the Polar Arctic. As with any industry there is only room for three top competitors and when it comes to the current Cold War in the Polar Arctic – there is no exception to this rule. International Superpowers Unite States, China & Russia are dominating this conversation with the United States coming in last place. For decades both Antarctica and the Polar Arctic were agreed to be non-militarized and reserved as a designated place for scientists of all types to conduct scientific research. But times have changed thus, the socio-economic climate has changed and a place that was once considered to be “Neutral Territory” on the world stage has now become a place that has ripened for world domination and conquest.
When it comes to the Polar Arctic, what’s at stake is the exceptionally vast oil, liquid natural gas (LNG) and energy resources that are hidden under the ice. What really accelerated the race for dominance in the Polar Arctic is climate change, with huge glaciers and ice sheets melting, climate change has allowed for countries specially Russia to carve out ship routes in which they can enter, extract the natural resources, and exit the furthest reaches of the Polar Arctic in order to profit off those natural resources. Make no mistake about it, Russia is the prime candidate to take the most advantage of the opportunities that the Polar Arctic has to offer when it comes to the international energy markets.
Meanwhile China, also has an astronomical stake in the Polar Arctic as well. And this is due to their proximity to the region after Russia. Roughly nearly or slight past 50% of the oil, LNG, and energy needs of China are dependent on the exportation of those resources from other countries such as Russia, Iran, and Saudi Arabia. With China making headway into the Polar Arctic, it will provide them with the opportunity to ease their dependency on other countries to supply its oil and energy needs.
Coming in last is the United States who is at a disproportionate disadvantage mainly due to it’s mainland geographical location outside the territory of Alaska. Because of its location, the voyage to the Polar Arctic, coupled with the extraction of its natural resources and returning to America with those resources will prove to be costly. In fact, it’s so costly it may place America in a position where they are forced to strategically better their relationship with the Saudis and possibly Iran just to maintain their oil and energy needs. Remember curtly to date, even though the United States has placed just about every sanction they could have on Russia – the United States is still forced to buy Russian uranium to power its nuclear needs.
A question that many investors in the oil and energy markets are asking is how the mining of Arctic oil and energy will affect the Saudi and Iranian oil and energy markets – currently it’s too early to tell. But what is known is that Russia and China will undeniably be the largest claimers of land when it comes to the Polar Arctic, hence its vast natural resources. Militarily, it is expected that things will heat up in the Polar Arctic because Russia and China will strategically collaborate to shut the United States out of the region due to geopolitical differences. Keep in mind that the geopolitical ties of Russia and China runs deep, and they will never turn on each other.
A hidden wild card is North Korea because they have a lot to gain from Polar Arctic exploration if they can make it. This notion could be considering a stretch for many but however seemingly impossible it is for North Korea to be involved in this, it’s probable that they will make an attempt as it would be in their best national interest outside of arms sales. Welcome to Cold War 3.0.
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